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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were fretted that as stocks dropped, this slump would also be reflected in their earnings report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place prematurely, before the needed economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History suggests that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next booming market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
The main ETF to discuss here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 various ETFs, supplying direct exposure to different sectors of the marketplace, with the main concentrate on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and infotech assets. The ETF provides direct exposure to a variety of sectors, enabling you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.