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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new booming market.

When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally before another plunge?

To address this concern, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.

Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks dropped, this recession would likewise be shown in their profits report. The reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, before the required economic goals have actually been accomplished.

Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has actually undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.

 

The large number of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History shows that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.

To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.

In 2020, ARKK got around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately ten different ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.

” ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and infotech properties. The ETF offers direct exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.

” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.

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Trading on  occurs in USD, so a conversion charge will apply if you deposit or withdraw in a currency besides USD. Withdrawals sustain a charge of US$ 5 (�,� 4), and the minimum withdrawal quantity is US$ 30 (�,� 24).

 

We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.