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The very first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But since the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Lots of financiers were stressed that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would also be shown in their earnings report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening too soon, prior to the required economic objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually certainly been a big one. Compared to the three previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally occur before the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History shows that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation needs to boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments handled by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately ten different ETFs, offering exposure to numerous sectors of the marketplace, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and information technology properties. The ETF offers direct exposure to a range of sectors, enabling you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will cause the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.