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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this downturn would also be shown in their incomes report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring prematurely, before the needed financial objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur often, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to compromise. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rates of interest hikes.
In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls around 10 different ETFs, supplying direct exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next booming market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.