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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However because the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks dropped, this downturn would likewise be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are expecting an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, before the required financial goals have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable gets here and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is coming down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
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We remain optimistic that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.