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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearish market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has actually reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings surpassed expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this slump would also be shown in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Financiers are expecting an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the required economic goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally occur before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we require to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will cause the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.