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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But because the start of the 2nd half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the rate has actually been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Thus, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were stressed that as stocks plunged, this slump would also be reflected in their revenues report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is happening prematurely, before the needed economic goals have actually been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally take place prior to the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unmatched.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to compromise. In spite of these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.