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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the theoretical limit for a new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we looking at a brand-new bull market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors offering stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be reflected in their profits report. Nevertheless, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, prior to the essential financial goals have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has actually certainly been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings have needed 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearishness rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will result in the next bull market, we need to see a sustained decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
The primary ETF to mention here is ARKK. It sprung into the spotlight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK acquired around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around 10 different ETFs, offering direct exposure to numerous sectors of the market, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards healthcare and infotech assets. The ETF offers exposure to a series of sectors, permitting you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we might have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still needs to come down.