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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Because the start of the second half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To address this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the marketplace has actually reached its bottom as the price has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Thus, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues exceeded expectations: Numerous financiers were stressed that as stocks plunged, this decline would also be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring prematurely, before the essential economic goals have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur frequently, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and begins the next bull market. We are currently in the 4th rally, and some healings require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History indicates that we might have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though huge, is not extraordinary.
Inflation should come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we require to see a continual decline in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product costs falling, supply chains loosening, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest hikes.
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We remain optimistic that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom but at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still requires to come down.