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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But because the beginning of the second half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the hypothetical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we taking a look at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier belief: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has been driven down by financiers offering stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits surpassed expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks dropped, this recession would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not nearly as bad as numerous feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place prematurely, prior to the needed economic objectives have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually indeed been a big one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The large number of bear rallies which typically take place before the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next booming market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bear market rally. History suggests that we may have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not unmatched.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we require to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity costs falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not encourage the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate hikes.
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We stay positive that we might have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time careful about the existing rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next bull market. For that to happen, inflation still requires to come down.