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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the theoretical threshold for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a brand-new booming market or is this a bear market rally? Simply put, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The ramification is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the rate has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 profits exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were stressed that as stocks plummeted, this downturn would also be reflected in their earnings report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decline and an end to the Fed treking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is taking place too soon, before the essential economic objectives have actually been attained.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies take place typically, and this has actually indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which usually occur prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and starts the next booming market. We are presently in the 4th rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% typical bearish market rally. History shows that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation must boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next booming market, we need to see a sustained decrease in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to damage. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest walkings.
The main ETF to discuss here is ARKK. It sprung into the spotlight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages around ten different ETFs, supplying exposure to different sectors of the market, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and information technology properties. The ETF provides direct exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the variety of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We remain positive that we may have seen the bearishness reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the existing rally being the sustainable recovery that will result in the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still requires to come down.