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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. However given that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the marketplace has started to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near to the theoretical limit for a brand-new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we looking at a new bull market or is this a bearish market rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our method up, or is the market seeing a little rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings exceeded expectations: Numerous financiers were worried that as stocks plunged, this slump would also be reflected in their profits report. The reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Financiers are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed treking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the United States Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, before the essential economic objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen typically, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stick out:.
The large number of bear rallies which generally happen prior to the one that is sustainable shows up and begins the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries require 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History suggests that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however huge, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to weaken. In spite of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is boiling down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rates of interest hikes.
The main ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive financial investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now manages roughly ten different ETFs, offering exposure to various sectors of the marketplace, with the main focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is heavily weighted towards healthcare and infotech properties. The ETF provides direct exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the full effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay optimistic that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time cautious about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will lead to the next booming market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.