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The first half of 2022 was the worst very first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Considering that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and close to the hypothetical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our main concern is: are we taking a look at a brand-new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? In other words, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the marketplace seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To address this concern, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The ramification is that the market has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Therefore, the marketplace is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings went beyond expectations: Lots of financiers were fretted that as stocks dropped, this decline would also be reflected in their incomes report. The reports were not nearly as bad as many feared.
Investors are hoping for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rates of interest by the end of the year.
As the market rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is happening prematurely, before the needed economic goals have been accomplished.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has undoubtedly been a big one. Compared to the 3 previous significant crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which typically take place before the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearishness rally. History shows that we might have more incorrect dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unprecedented.
Inflation must come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next booming market, we require to see a sustained decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still might not convince the Fed that it is time to stop rate of interest walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom but at the same time mindful about the present rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next booming market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.