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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. But considering that the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the marketplace has actually begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical limit for a new booming market.
When we see this rally, our primary question is: are we taking a look at a brand-new bull market or is this a bear market rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally prior to another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s understand what is driving this rally.
Capitulated financier sentiment: The implication is that the market has reached its bottom as the cost has actually been driven down by financiers selling stocks without the hope of restoring their losses. Therefore, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 revenues surpassed expectations: Lots of investors were worried that as stocks plummeted, this slump would also be reflected in their earnings report. However, the reports were not nearly as bad as lots of feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking rate of interest by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is worried that this is occurring too soon, prior to the needed financial objectives have been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies happen often, and this has actually undoubtedly been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, two things stand apart:.
The large number of bear rallies which normally occur prior to the one that is sustainable gets here and starts the next booming market. We are currently in the fourth rally, and some healings require 11.
The plus size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bearish market rally. History indicates that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, though big, is not unmatched.
Inflation should boil down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will cause the next bull market, we need to see a continual decline in inflation. Our company believe we are close to this inflation peak, with commodity prices falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market starting to deteriorate. Regardless of these signals, we will require to see concrete information that inflation is coming down, which still might not persuade the Fed that it is time to halt rate of interest walkings.
The main ETF to point out here is ARKK. It sprung into the limelight in 2020, with its disruptive investments managed by Cathie Wood. In 2020, ARKK gained around 148% after buying stocks such as Tesla and Square. Ark Invest now controls approximately 10 various ETFs, offering direct exposure to different sectors of the marketplace, with the primary focus on tech.
” ARKK (ARK Development ETF) is greatly weighted towards health care and infotech assets. The ETF provides direct exposure to a series of sectors, allowing you to increase the diversity of your portfolio.
” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete impact of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bearish market reach its bottom however at the same time cautious about the current rally being the sustainable recovery that will lead to the next bull market. For that to take place, inflation still needs to come down.