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The first half of 2022 was the worst first half of the year for the S&P in more than 50 years. Since the beginning of the 2nd half of the year, the market has begun to rebound. The S&P 500 is up 13% from its June lows, and the NASDAQ is up near 20% from its lows, and near the hypothetical limit for a brand-new bull market.
When we see this rally, our main question is: are we looking at a new booming market or is this a bearishness rally? To put it simply, have we reached the bottom yet and are on our way up, or is the market seeing a small rally before another plunge?
To answer this question, let’s comprehend what is driving this rally.
Capitulated investor belief: The implication is that the marketplace has reached its bottom as the price has been driven down by investors selling stocks without the hope of regaining their losses. Hence, the market is ripe for a rally.
Q2 earnings exceeded expectations: Numerous investors were worried that as stocks dropped, this slump would likewise be reflected in their profits report. However, the reports were not almost as bad as many feared.
Investors are wishing for an inflation decrease and an end to the Fed hiking interest rates by the end of the year.
As the marketplace rallies, the US Federal Reserve is concerned that this is occurring prematurely, before the essential financial goals have actually been achieved.
Is this the one?
Bear rallies occur typically, and this has indeed been a huge one. Compared to the three previous major crashes in 2007, 2000, and 1973, 2 things stand out:.
The a great deal of bear rallies which generally happen before the one that is sustainable arrives and starts the next bull market. We are presently in the fourth rally, and some recoveries have needed 11.
The large size of this 13% rally versus the 8% average bear market rally. History indicates that we may have more false dawns ahead, and the size of this rally, however big, is not extraordinary.
Inflation needs to come down.
To reach the sustainable rally that will lead to the next bull market, we need to see a continual decrease in inflation. We believe we are close to this inflation peak, with product rates falling, supply chains loosening up, and the labour market beginning to weaken. Despite these signals, we will need to see concrete data that inflation is boiling down, which still may not convince the Fed that it is time to halt interest rate walkings.
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” After such a strong year in 2020, ARKK has actually felt the complete effect of the tech sell-off, falling around 12% this year.”.
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We stay positive that we may have seen the bear market reach its bottom however at the same time mindful about the current rally being the sustainable healing that will result in the next bull market. For that to occur, inflation still needs to come down.